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Wed, Nov 4, 2026
Niue Faces Elevated Tropical Cyclone Risk for the 2026-2027 Season
Niue Meteorological Services advises that the official Tropical Cyclone (TC) Season commenced on 1 November 2026 and will continue through to 30 April 2027.
Niue is likely to be affected by 1 to 3 cyclones for the season. It is rare, but cyclones can still occur outside of the season. The number of tropical cyclones entering Niue's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) varies from year to year and is strongly influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
A strong to very strong El Niño is likely through January-March 2027, with El Niño conditions expected to persist into March-May 2027. These conditions are associated with an eastward shift in tropical cyclone activity across the Southwest Pacific, increasing the potential for cyclone activity to affect parts of the central and eastern Pacific region, including areas near Niue.
According to Earth Sciences New Zealand (ESNZ), between 7 and 11 named tropical cyclones are expected to develop across the Southwest Pacific during the season. Of these, at least 4 are forecast to intensify into severe tropical cyclones of Category 3 or higher.