When the pendulum swings

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When the pendulum swings

By admin（https://belizean.com/author/belizean_ljqplqfp/）

August 11, 2026

Dr. Philip Castillo

In any two party democracy, the pendulum eventually swings. Key word…eventually. But what makes it swing?

Focus on the comparatively more recent “Pendulum Swing” General Elections and recall the tremendous outpouring of pure national joy that accompanied such elections in Belize. Mr. Said Musa and the PUP won the pendulum swing General Elections in 1998 with a national total of 59.3% of votes and was the first to repeat in 2003 with a national total of 52.8%. In the subsequent five year span from 2003 to 2008, the pendulum again swung such that the PUP lost badly in 2008, when they obtained only obtained 40.9% of the votes. What made the pendulum swing? Was it one issue? A combination of several issues? American pollsters coin the phrase “wedge issue” to focus on a defining issue that motivates single issue voters or brings out less motivated and occasional voters. Was there a wedge issue in 2008 that “moved the needle”? This is another phrase used by pollsters to describe a seismic shift in political fortunes.

Mr. Dean Barrow and the UDP won the pendulum swing national elections in 2008, with 56.3% of the national vote and kept wining for three consecutive elections until defeat in 2020. The same questions need to be asked. What made the pendulum swing? Was it one issue? A combination of several issues? Was there a wedge issue in 2020?

Table 1

Election Year % PUP votes % UDP votes % alternate party votes Voter Turnout (%) Comments Possible Reason for Pendulum Swing

1993 51.2 48.7 .06 71.6

1998* 59.3 39.2 0.9 90.1 Pendulum Swing to PUP. Note INCREASE in % votes for PUP, DECREASE in % votes for UDP & massive INCREASE in voter turnout. Retrenchment?? Introduction of VAT?? Economic Citizenship Programme??

2003 52.8 45.2 1.3 79.5 Start of 2 nd term for PUP

2008* 40.9 56.3 2.1% 77.2 Pendulum Swing to UDP . Note double digit DECREASE in % votes for PUP & double digit INCREASE in % votes for UDP. Corruption/Malfeasance?? PUP infighting – Gang of Seven?? Superbond?? Privatization of national assets?? BTL issues?? Ministerial misconduct??

2012 NA NA NA 73.2 Start of 2nd term for UDP

2015 47.3 50.0 1.7 72.7 Start of 3 rd term for UDP

2020* 58.9 38.3 1.5 81.9 Pendulum Swing to PUP . Note double digit INCREASE in % votes for PUP, double digit DECREASE in % votes for UDP & INCREASE in voter turnout. Corruption/Malfeasance?? UDP infighting & succession squabbles?? Covid Restrictions?? Ministerial misconduct??

2025** 66.6 28.9** 2.5 65.0 **The UDP % represent the combined totals of the Tracey & Shyne factions of the party .

Source: https://elections.gov.bz/general-election-results/

In general, while there are many issues that motivate a typical Belizean voter, my polls have found that generally high on their list — in no particular order are their economic situation, perceptions of corruption/malfeasance in government, candidate quality, party loyalty and family connections. Money is important because, among other things, it is needed to motivate the base, entice the less committed and dole out favours, including outright bribery. Note the report from BelPri on money in Belizean politics. https://heyzine.com/flip-book/8bd36f9fb4.html

Incumbency does confer advantages and in our politics, one such advantage is that it allows the incumbent to use public resources for partisan electoral advantage. We are also now aware of chicanery in the electoral process whereby voters form one constituency are transferred to another constituency. Both parties have safe houses where many voters officially reside. Both parties also activate bacon houses where benefits are doled out to partisan supporters. Money, in multiples of thousands, is required to undertake these activities.

But money also has its limitations due to what economists refer to as diminishing returns. After all, cash rich incumbent governments and cash rich individual politicians have lost, sometimes badly. In Belize, Opposition politicians are known to advise voters to “Take dem money and still vote dem out.” This is tacit acknowledgement that incumbents have money and resources, which voters are encouraged to take accept, while simultaneously voting against said incumbent. Rinse and repeat when governments change.

Fast forward to Mr. John Briceno and the PUP’s pendulum-swing victory in 2020. A victory that was repeatedly on a similar scale in 2025, facing a divided Opposition. The next set of elections that will serve as a referendum on Mr. Briceno’s government are the municipals slated for next year 2027, then the village councils slated for the following year 2028. But will the pendulum swing? Will the needle move? Voter turnout may provide a guide.

But Approval Ratings would likely provide a more reliable guide.