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Analysis
Gulf’s $3 trillion US investment drive faces post-midterm Trump reckoning
A sweeping midterm election victory by Democrats on Nov. 3 is cause for concern among Gulf states that eagerly embraced Trump's White House and pledged huge investment commitments.
Samuel Wendel（https://www.al-monitor.com/authors/samuel-wendel）
Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia and US President Donald Trump shake hands during a dinner in the East Room at the White House on Nov. 18, 2025 in Washington, DC.
— Win McNamee/Getty Images
A year ago, energy-rich Gulf states were central to President Donald Trump’s promise of an American economic renaissance, having pledged trillions（https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2025/05/ai-chips-drones-jets-look-trumps-32-trillion-megadeals-during-gulf-trip） in US investments early in his second term.
Momentum peaked in November 2025 during Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s visit（https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2025/11/saudi-arabias-mbs-comeback-tour-first-us-visit-khashoggi-murder） to Washington, producing key deals including a long-sought civilian nuclear pact. The regional announcements all reflected an unusually close, mutually beneficial relationship delivering Gulf capital for White House priorities in exchange for greater strategic influence for regional partners.
Twelve months later, these ties suddenly appear on far shakier ground, battered by the US-Israel-Iran war and Trump’s eroding power after Democrats scored resounding midterm election victories on Nov. 3. The Republicans' loss of both chambers of Congress leaves the White House facing an emboldened opposition looking to challenge the Iran conflict and probe the administration’s conduct.
For Gulf governments already absorbing billions in wartime economic damage and bracing for any new escalation（https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/11/war-oil-ai-what-us-midterms-could-mean-middle-east-economies） in the eight-month conflict, the election adds political exposure to an increasingly expensive partnership.
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